Situated outside of the common tropical zone of South and Central Florida, the northwest panhandle receives lower temperatures than the rest of the state, which can help to strengthen hurricanes by contributing to the air pressure level that hurricanes need. That’s partly due to the Gulf of Mexico, which is known for its warm shallow waters, and partly due to its location in the U.S. Don’t focus on a forecast point: as of now, no one is off the hook in Florida.Surprisingly enough - or maybe not surprising at all to some people - Northwest Florida, situated on the Panhandle, is the most hurricane-prone area in Florida. Projecting a landfall point with this type of forecast track is impossible, as the narrow angle of approach between the storm’s motion and the orientation of the Florida Gulf coastline means small track deviations can have huge implications.ĭuring Hurricane Charley, a subtle shift in heading just prior to landfall brought the ferocious core of the storm into the Fort Myers area, rather than Tampa Bay. The bottom line is if Ian doesn’t sprint across South Florida or east-central Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday, which is very possible, what might happen after that is unclear. trough will begin to depart in the middle of next week, causing steering currents in the eastern Gulf to weaken in 5-6 days and a period of slower or erratic motion to possibly ensue. While spending more time over the Gulf sounds like a bad deal, this could be offset by increasing shear and dry air intrusion into the storm beyond Wednesday.Īn additional complication is that the eastern U.S. This scenario would increase the eventual risks for the Panhandle, Big Bend, and west Central Florida, and today’s model runs are edging back west after a sizeable jump east yesterday.
Panhandle is far from in the clear at this pointīut Ian could also swing farther west towards the Yucatan Channel before angling north and then north-northeast over the eastern Gulf. the official track had nudged the center of t closer to central Florida. The combination of a short timeline for preparation, high population density, and the probable continuation of favorable conditions for strengthening through early Wednesday means that residents of the southern half of the Florida peninsula should begin preparing for a possible major hurricane now.Īs the day progressed, models shifted westward and by 11 p.m. This scenario, or one in which the turn north and northeast takes place even faster and puts the Keys and South Florida in the crosshairs on Tuesday, is probably the most dangerous scenario on the table. This track is very similar to the one traced by Category 4 Hurricane Charley in August 2004, a sentence that will no doubt set everyone in Southwest and Central Florida on edge. The forecast is uncertain beyond Tuesday.Īs of mid-day Friday, the official NHC track took the storm close to Fort Myers on Wednesday morning as a major hurricane. Hurricane track and model mixer: Bookmark this page for the latest path and computer model runs Uncertainty abounds: But South Florida residents should prepare now for possible Hurricane Charley scenario The most probable path will carry the storm into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, though a track further east into the Straits of Florida remains a possibility.
Subtle differences in steering wind patterns will determine how far west Ian makes it before a more northward motion ensues on Tuesday. All forecast guidance suggests that Ian’s track will gradually bend more northwestward on Sunday and Monday in response to a deep trough over the Eastern Seaboard, setting the storm on a path in the general direction of western Cuba by late Monday.
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